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One interesting thing about SSP3-7.0 is that its warming is partially masked by significant aerosol emissions. In fact, the Fujimori 2017 paper finds that SSP2 plus no mitigation policy also gives 7 W/m2 (see figure 1) due to fewer aerosol emissions under SSP2. doi.org/10.1016/j.gl...

to be clear, though, it's probably wrong to think of it as "likely", even with the U.S. backsliding. the rest of the world is chugging ahead and that will probably keep us from the SSP3-7