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El Niño/La Niña famously cannot be reliably predicted more than ~6 months in advance due to the "predictability barrier": this is a chaotic system! New research from Australia (CSIRO/UMelb) just showed it *can* sometimes be predicted much earlier, up to a full year! www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.orgUsing initial states to identify successful El Niño–Southern Oscillation forecasts 1 year in advanceEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary source of climate predictability on seasonal and longer timescales over much of the globe, but predicting its phase beyond 9 months has remained chal...
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