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#HAWAII: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~62,000 ACA exchange plans: ~8,100 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~94,000 ACA exchange plans: ~16,500

#IDAHO: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~37,000 ACA exchange plans: ~38,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~56,000 ACA exchange plans: ~79,000

#ILLINOIS: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~337,000 ACA exchange plans: ~153,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~506,000 ACA exchange plans: ~312,000

Before I continue a reminder that there are 21 Republican-held U.S. Senate seats on the ballot next year, and you can help flip some or all of them at once by donating directly to the Democratic nominees here: (yes, I know most of these are extreme long shots) secure.actblue.com/donate/senat...

#INDIANA: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~227,000 ACA exchange plans: ~120,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~340,000 ACA exchange plans: ~240,000

#IOWA: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~73,000 ACA exchange plans: ~45,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~109,000 ACA exchange plans: ~91,000 (But hey, as Joni Ernst noted, we're all gonna die anyway!)

#KANSAS: Kansas hasn't expanded Medicaid, but 200,000 of its residents are enrolled in ACA exchange plans. Projected to lose coverage entirely: ~66,600 Paperwork Hell AND MASSIVE Rate Hikes: ~133,400

#KENTUCKY: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~195,000 ACA exchange plans: ~32,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~293,000 ACA exchange plans: ~65,000

#LOUISIANA (GOP Speaker of the House Mike Johnson's home state): Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~313,000 ACA exchange plans: ~97,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~471,000 ACA exchange plans: ~195,000

#MAINE: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~44,000 ACA exchange plans: ~21,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~68,000 ACA exchange plans: ~43,000

Before I continue, a reminder that there are *42 House districts* where the Republican won by less than 15 points. Dems have overperformed by an average of 17 points across 29 special elections so far this year. Donate to these Democratic candidates today: secure.actblue.com/donate/house...

#MARYLAND: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~169,000 ACA exchange plans: ~82,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~253,000 ACA exchange plans: ~165,000

#MASSACHUSETTS: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~157,000 ACA exchange plans: ~122,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~235,000 ACA exchange plans: ~246,000

#MICHIGAN (my home state!) Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~296,000 ACA exchange plans: ~177,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~446,000 ACA exchange plans: ~354,000 (including my own family)

#MINNESOTA: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~88,000 ACA exchange and/or Minnesotacare enrollees: ~77,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~133,000 ACA exchange plans and/or Minnesotacareenrollees: ~155,000

#MISSISSIPPI: Mississippi hasn't expanded Medicaid, but over 11% of their total population is enrolled in ACA exchange plans, virtually all of whom are subsidized. Projected to lose coverage entirely: ~112,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: ~226,000

#MISSOURI: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~130,000 ACA exchange: ~139,000 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~196,000 ACA exchange plans: ~278,000

#MONTANA: Projected to lose coverage entirely: Medicaid expansion: ~31,800 ACA exchange: ~25,700 Paperwork Hell and/or MASSIVE Rate Hikes: Medicaid expansion: ~47,800 ACA exchange plans: ~51,500

Before I continue, a reminder that it takes a TON of time & effort for me to put together the data, graphs & charts for these. If you'd like to support my work, you can do so either once or monthly (both are appreciated, monthly is preferred!) here, thank you! secure.actblue.com/donate/acasi...

📣 IMPORTANT UPDATE: Until now, this thread has been based on crude estimates that ~40% of Medicaid expansion enrollees & ~33% of ACA exchange enrollees would lose coverage in each state. 1/

Unfortunately I can't edit the first half of the thread (ahem @bsky.app) & it would take forever to repost it, so I'm going to post revised estimates for each of the first half of the states before continuing on with the second half of the states. 3/

It's also worth noting that the @kff.org analysis projects that around ~560,000 of the ~7.8 million who would lose Medicaid coverage nationally would be in states which *haven't* expanded it due to other assorted changes to Medicaid not specific to the ACA expansion. 4/

With that in mind, here's revised estimates of the first half of the states based on KFF's analysis: