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🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING: It's worse than I thought! The Trump regime just published a new report officially stating that #ACA enrollment had ALREADY plummeted by over 2.6 million people as of FEBRUARY. This is worse than the prior assumption of 3.0M losing coverage thru April. acasignups.net/26/06/26/bre...

Last month, @notus.com reported on internal CMS documents admitting that effectuated ACA marketplace enrollment had dropped ~17% from the 23.1M Open Enrollment Period plan selection tally, which would put it at ~19.2M as of April...down 13.5% year over year. acasignups.net/26/05/12/bre...

TODAY, the actual internal report was published by the Assistant Secretary for Planning & Evaluation (ASPE) division of the HHS Dept...and while the 19.2 million figure is accurate, it turns out that the *as of* date was 3 months earlier, in FEBRUARY. This amounts to a 12.1% net drop vs. Feb. 2025.

While the number is less than the prior assumption, it's actually worse...because net enrollment has continued to drop off *since* February across the states I have data for...and especially because the ACA includes a 90-day grace period, which likely means an even sharper drop from March to April.

The reasons given by the Trump Regime for the 2.6M (and counting) ACA enrollees who had already lost coverage just 2 months into the year is that it's all supposedly due to "waste, fraud and abuse." This is their response to everything. I'll be writing about the report itself separately.

But in the meantime, @protectourcare.org will have to update their report from last week from "over 5 million" to "Over 6.4 million." www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/u...

Update: More here from @paigecunningham.bsky.social of @notus.com: www.notus.org/healthcare/m...

Re the discrepancy between the 2.6M in my story & the 3.9M claimed in the @notus.com story: 2.6M = Drop in enrollment from February 2025 - February 2026 3.9M = Drop from how many *selected plans during the 2026 Open Enrollment Period* to the number enrolled as of February. Both are accurate.

There’s always a drop from the OEP number to the February effectuated enrollment number…but it’s a lot higher this year (last year it dropped 2.47 million; this year it dropped 3.9 million, and even the OEP number was already 1.2M lower than last year to begin with).

Here’s how ACA enrollment has played out by month every year since 2019. The black line is 2026, with dotted lines showing what it would look like for the rest of this year IF it follows the 2025 pattern (highly unlikely) or the 2019 pattern (more likely but my guess is it’ll be even worse).