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David Nir
@davidnir.com

@pkrugman.bsky.social recently said that the "good old days" of low prices should be fading away—and he's right. The problem is, it'll take many years. New (and my first piece at Strength In Numbers!) w/@gelliottmorris.com: Why consumer sentiment won't recover until the 2030s w/o bold new policies.

gelliottmorris.comIt'll be years before Americans get used to higher prices — and politicians can't just wait it outConsumers will eventually adjust, but in the meantime, they'll keep punishing leaders who don't act

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David Nir
@davidnir.com

Elliott (and @jaredb-econ.bsky.social) have persuasively argued that "excess inflation"—how much more things cost vs. what consumers think they *should* cost, based on 30 years of low inflation before COVID—is making Americans very sour on the economy. Prices are now about 15% higher than expected!

David Nir
@davidnir.com

But we can project when this excess inflation will disappear, based on estimates of future inflation. Current predictions range from 2.7% to 4.7% per year, which means excess inflation would not vanish until 2029 or 2030—and that's only if are no future COVID-style spikes.

David Nir
@davidnir.com

But in many scenarios, consumer sentiment lags further still. Under 3% annual inflation, for instance, attitudes about the economy wouldn't return to their historical median until 2032. And crucially, they would *never* reach their pre-COVID highs again. Unless.

David Nir
@davidnir.com

The "unless" is key. Politicians can't just wait out the end of high prices. Voters will punish them well beforehand. For Dems, that means enacting big policies that make life less precarious, like the expanded child tax credit. If not, they could condemn themselves to non-stop political turnover.