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New: AI could keep poor countries poor by eliminating paths to economic growth. Stocks in Indian IT firms and Philippines' call centers have been selling off, driven by fears about AI automation. In an age of AI, will the world need any of what poor countries sell?

Every country that has sustained rapid growth since 1950 did it through exports - often moving from agriculture, to manufacturing, to services. South Korea went from $100 per capita to >$35,000 by exporting wigs, plywood, clothing, ships, steel, cars, and finally semiconductors.

Why exports? Domestic consumers are too few and too poor, and new industries need imports priced in hard currency. Also, there's evidence of learning gains and productivity increases from exporting.

Manufacturing as a path is already closing. The sector has gotten so competitive that the industry cannot create enough jobs. Bangladesh's garment exports tripled between 2010 and 2024, while employment in the sector stayed flat.

Now, services may be going down a similar path, as they face the prospect of AI automation. These are important parts of economies: India's tech industry earned $283 billion last year and employs 5.8 million people. Philippine BPO grosses $40 billion a year, over 8% of GDP.

But the same traits that make a job possible to offshore also make it especially automatable. While there's no sign of disruption looking at overall employment, new jobs in these fields are declining.