It's actually deeply surprising to me that no lab has been able to build a sustained lead pre-RSI from their internal research. We have 5+ labs continuously releasing roughly capability-equivalent models within no more than 6 months of each other.
Pre-registering a prediction that RSI will not produce a durable competitive advantage for OAI/Anthropic. Existing training is already pretty good. RSI will produce a one-time, significant bump that everyone will copy. Then we're back to doing RL on high-quality data. I could be wrong of course!
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