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The "Labs are nerfing their models post-release" conspiracy is being joined by its antagonist: "Labs are secretly routing to completely different, stronger models".

I'm 95% sure the nerfing one is non-sense, based on plenty of benchmarks I've both run myself, and others have run too. I'm a little less confident about the routing one. It feels *just barely* plausible for requests coming from their own harnesses. 100% not true for other API traffic.

The thing to keep in mind is that routing to a newer model will cause all sorts of severe regressions in production systems. Coding harnesses meant for interactive use are *slightly* less sensitive to this, but I still don't buy it. I'm going to say 80% that the silent re-routing one is false too.

I'd consider this part of the *barely plausible* category. Though I'll up my P(routing) if you say that you've personally observed this. :) Everything I see on X about these claims are vibes and one-off results (typically some 3D modeling prompt that is gonna be high variance to begin with).

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I haven't observed this recently, but I have observed it prior to earlier Gemini releases.

codewright@codewright.bsky.social

Google AI Studio seems to be doing stealthy A/B testing again. And the difference in speed is more than obvious. It is insane.