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Thread of ideas that don't have short names but deserve them: 1. For most common issues, if you just research and follow standard boring conventional best-practices, you'll do better than ~95% of people, because they don't do that.

2. AI is exhausting and many of us are sick to death of thinking about it, but it's so massively consequential (potential AGI, obviously, but even just to the short-term US economy) that not thinking about it is not an option.

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3. Sometimes when people say they aren't worried about something but give weird and shifting explanations, that's because they don't actually believe that thing is possible, but haven't fully acknowledged that fact to themselves.

(I stress that these ideas are not necessarily correct, but if nothing else we could shorten debates by having them once and for all and giving them labels.)

4. It's actually quite hard to find generalists who are simultaneously pretty competent and reliable and easy to work with. You get get surprisingly far in the world by just being mildly above-average on all those three axes at the same time.

5. This RCT showing a small but non-significant effect is completely consistent with a true small effect, or no effect.

theres this old animators saying (i tried to look it up but duckduckgo didn't have anything) that reminds me of dis: paraphrased is there are three qualties u can have in ur animation job:, good at animating, quick at animating, and being nice to be around. you need two of the three to be employed