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Oh OpenAI’s margins are worse because they had to “buy extra compute”? Because they were so popular? So their solution is what exactly? Boosters will say “oh this is a one time thing,” except it happens every year to both companies.

An accurate explanation of the entire ai bubble. You can dress it up in as much future tense and puffery as you want but this is how this shit goes, and remember that OpenAI should in theory have the most infrastructure efficiency. These are black hole margins! bsky.app/profile/ashe...

"We make less money as more people use our services!" doesn't seem like a winning value prop but I'm no financial jeenious

You didn't grow up on "I Love Lucy" reruns, but OpenAI's business model is just Lucy Ricardo in 1954, going on TV to sell her homemade "Aunt Martha's Old Fashioned Salad Dressing" & taking mailbags full of orders before Ricky does the math & figures out she will lose money on every jar.

Shaking my head and smiling like remembering a summer vacation with friends. Remember when they were actually trying to be efficient? Hilarious.

Publicly traded companies piling into the space means it will need to service growth... But human nature values mass-produced output less. Those lines on that graph will just continue to diverge. Humans, on their own are going to be the cheaper option in relation to productivity.

Except their *actual* motive was the stupidest possible reason (that Altman was insufficiently fearful of creating a dangerous superintelligence that would exact revenge on humanity). That's also why Anthropic exists, by the way.

"Mistrust" was the headline reason, but mistrust *about what*. The things he was being slippery with the Board about were generally angled towards moving faster and being more aggressive, in ways that cast aside safety concerns. From Karen Hao's "Empire of AI" (just a quickly-spotted example):

I'm 100% confident that OpenAI will collapse by 2027 but Sam Altman is making a great case for it being this year. Having to honest about the finances with how things are going currently sounds like a nightmare.