Post

By the way: I have been saying for a while that the debt markets will be what drags this era to its knees. Every single neocloud needs endless debt and will need it for the foreseeable future. Coreweave will burn, it is a time bomb as I’ve been saying a year and a half.

as someone who has been following this for probably the longest, is there any universe where the collapse of all this doesn't wind up in 08 style crisis where average people foot the entire bill or are we totally doing that fuckin thing again?

I do not think that this is going to be the same as the great financial crisis. It is going to be different and new. There are so many new things - high gov debt, no more big growth industries left, private credit, etc - that make this weirder. But there isn’t trillions in speculation

TD Cowen reported last week that NVIDIA and Oracle are doing some sort of vendor financing/thing where Nvidia leases capacity then sub leases it to Oracle. They’re scraping the bottom of the barrel. The big trigger would be if it’s downgraded. bsky.app/profile/pzyl...

If neocloud financing is dead that means SB Energy and Nscale’s IPOs are dead. Not sure what Lambda does about its IPO either. Super Micro already backstops one of their leases!

How the hell do you even prepare for the market devastation?

My strat is gold and canadian banks.

I'm convinced this is why Elon had a hard on to merge Tesla and SpaceX. He bet on AI and lost hard and the only thing keeping their revenues up is renting their data centers to other companies with no business model. He needs Tesla's profits and cash flows to hide his failures.

I don't know,on one end he killed SpaceX Falcon 9 and this thing was definitely profitable. On the other hand Tesla isn't on a great trajectory thanks to his leadership. None of his decisions seem reasonable, he might just be completely crazy.