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Without tactical voting Labour 324 Tories 121 Reform 118 LD 50 Green 2 Minority Lab government or stable Lab/LD government of some sort. Tory/Reform nowhere near coalition level. If Peter Kellner’s tactical voting analysis is correct the real Reform seat number would be less than 20.

I’m interested to know where that projection is from? 50 seems too low for Lib Dems on those %. Election maps model says 66. Green down to 2 also feels unlikely. Also, looking at those totals, it only allows 16 seats for SNP and Plaid with those seat numbers, the NI seats and one for the speaker.

Electoral calculus

I'm almost certain that Reform would not get a huge number of seats.

Lab/Lib/Grn 46% Rfm/Con/Res 49% Still not great!

And Labour saying they won't work with Greens

I know. And Kemi says she won't work with Reform. But they'll still be in parliament and I'd prefer to have a majority left/centre one than a right/far right one

Keminaissance surge

Madness from the greens to overshadow their conference with such as divisive motion. They actually had some popular policies such rent caps announced as well but its been completely overshadowed.

Not our choice, all those policies are there and many were voted through with no debate needed because they're not controversial. The media decided to take Palestinians acting despite the casual anti-Palestinian racism they face all the time and shock horror naming the racism name as controversial!

Greens at 8% when Polanski took over? Lasted longer than Liz Truss but maybe damaged the party more

Greens will be on 5% shortly.

Short term hit due to complicit media going crazy over moral anti-racists being moral and anti-racist!