Post

Yeap

If we get lots of polls in a row saying the Tories are up by a few percent, sure, take it seriously. One poll? No. In the last YouGov poll, Labour went up by 3%. Now they're down by 3%. It's noise. Even if NOBODY changed their mind ever, you'd still see random ups and downs of about this size.

Goldfish far surpass a good chunk of society in terms of memory

And why would Tory’s jump up either. For what? Announcing inheritance tax removal which effects the top 5% and the waste of money the kemi dome would be?

Id say a small narrow lead for Lab. Reform were leading the polls with yougov two weeks ago. No point overeacting.

The margin of error on a typical YouGov poll is indeed +/- 3%. As Sam Coates of Sky (who commission this poll with The Times), also confirms .

True, presumably ditto Lib Dems and Greens roughly tied. But how that translates into seats would be messy - two challenger parties wouldn't pick up that many seats on these numbers.

Anything under 5% is noise. It isn't likely real movement. Add to that, parties tend to rise after their conferences. Hence the Tory bump here, and Labour the week before.

Was the Tory conference in the past week so they got more coverage than usual

A tiny bit of actual movement and a lot of margin of error, would be my guess.

this isn't margin of error - it's bullshit from YouGov. The problem is this poll will drive media coverage for the next 7-10 days as the BBC/right wing take it as some epiphany for the Tories.

The accepted margin of error on a poll would put Labour at +or - 1% of the stated total support so the swing is still considerable in the space of a week. That’s the point.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gVg...

Looks like some people swallowed the media hype about Badenoch's speech.

Not sure this is shown here though. 44% combined Tory/ Reform is fairly consistent with other polls at the moment, though others don’t have Tories 3% ahead of Reform. This seems to be low on Labour and higher on Lib Dem and Green than other current polls. Right now all polling is a bit iffy I think.

(Or maybe hard-to-explain missile defence systems.)