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Bad news: US economy only grew 1.4% in Q4. Good news: Supreme Court has (finally) determined that President Trump's tariffs weren't legally imposed That's a win for consumers: the Federal Reserve found that "nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers.” /1

20/2/26, 3:47 pm0 reposts0 likes

Brian Elliott

@elliottsf.com

20 Feb

Tariffs didn’t reduce the trade deficit (~$900b in '25, same as '24). Manufacturing jobs continued to shrink in '25. They put a regressive tax on consumers and created not just challenges but massive uncertainty for businesses, which resulted in a weaker economy and weaker job market. /2

Brian Elliott

@elliottsf.com

20 Feb

What happens next with tariff rollbacks and other efforts by Trump to replace them, only time will tell. But given the US economic growth in 2025 was almost entirely dependent on AI-related spending, it would be excellent news to see a boon outside of tech. /3

Brian Elliott

@elliottsf.com

20 Feb

Not to mention a return to normalcy on trade deals that aren't negotiated based on whims and applied based on who transits the White House with the best golden statue.