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prediction: The public is going to see progress not at all and then very quickly. A lot of "AI is useful, actually" arguments fall on deaf ears for those whose work seems to see little improved by any recent new model announcements. I kinda get it.

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The jump likely comes from hardware releases, which we're still meaningfully far away from realizing. Software improvements trickle down to hardware construction, but it's not an immediate step change. It will take some time.