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I spoke with a former colleague of mine, a second generation Mexican American in his 50s, yesterday. It was illuminating. A 🧵 1/

Raúl is what I'd call a "Cuellar Democrat" in Houston. He's on the conservative most edge of the Dem coalition. Pro gun rights, doesn't like abortion (but should be legal), grew up in E&P and downstream. He has two sons in their 20s. He's taken them hunting every year since they were little 2/

Both went into trades: welding and chemical operations respectively. Nice kids but very into MMA, driving trucks and listening to Joe Rogan. They both voted for Trump. Raúl did not. The prospect of lower taxes and man-coded leadership was appealing 3/

Both think that politics is blood sport, entertainment. They were young boys entering puberty when Trump was elected for the first time. They don't know a political world outside of insults, histrionics and irony. This ICE escalation was "a huge wake up call" (Raúl's words not mine) 4/

His Son's girlfriend, originally from LA, had her father picked up by ICE. He realized all at once that, even if his citizenship was legally sound, he was gonna be the target of questioning and harassment. Federal agents were gonna classify by name and skin color first and foremost 6/

Both his sons, overnight, became instantly polarized against not just Trump, but the party. They are pissed. Both kids' girlfriends are (and have been) liberal/Dems. Making that switch for these guys was effortless. They're not impotent 55 year olds steeped in decades of Fox News 7/

Obviously this is just a single anecdote so handle with care, etc. But don't be cynical about how malleable political views can be. This is a tremendous fuck up by Trump and it isn't just a single news cycle. Don't assume people are all just dumb, not even 20 year olds who like Rogan end///

Sort of underscores the degree to which Trumpism is a (non-economic) luxury belief among people of color, the social economics of which can change on a dime

good. the next step is introspection. What made them fall for it? what made them ignore the very open and direct thing trump et all said? who was right and what made the guys disregard the cassandras? finding that out matters so this wont happen to them again