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Flávio Bolsonaro was the overwhelming favorite, right up until the moment he unceremoniously lost.

trib.al"Prediction" Markets Were Comically Wrong About the Brazilian ElectionThe prediction market Polymarket had Flávio Bolsonaro as an overwhelming favorite to win over Lula in the Brazil presidential election.

26/10/26, 10:26 pm7 reposts25 likes

Emily

@emilyyour8.bsky.social

20h

"Over $62 million in bets were placed on Bolsonaro." ‼️ Setting aside the absolute inanity of letting people bet tens of millions on public elections that hold peoples' lives in the balance, WOW did they get that wrong. 81% of bettors had Bolsanaro winning. Hope they're as wrong on South Carolina.