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I have reanalyzed polling microdata from two surveys in Wisconsin, generously shared with me by State Navigate, and put the results up Strength In Numbers for all to learn from. As far as I know this is the only public autopsy from Tuesday's miss www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-13...

gelliottmorris.comI re-analyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. Here's what actually went wrong.What raw data from Wisconsin's Democratic primary reveals about demographic weighting, late movement, and who answers polls

Any chance that GOP and unaffiliated voters were not sampled, or not weighted enough? It was an open primary -- non-Dems can vote in the Dem primary without having to register as a Dem. GOP primaries were not competitive, Dems expected to win. Both should lead to GOP voters in the Dem primary.

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