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G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com

New analysis: Expert handicappers like the Cook Political Report are probably underestimating Democratic odds of winning the House by about 30 points. That's based on an analysis of their historical ratings, not polls or other models. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-18...

gelliottmorris.comThe race raters are lowballing the DemocratsBased on my analysis of their historical ratings, Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are probably underestimating Democrats' House win probability by about 30 percentage points
Josh Marshall
@joshtpm.bsky.social

I don't want to be too harsh. Because I know a lot of these people but it's interesting to compare "Cook" to the actual Charlie Cook's substack where he's saying that the GOP may end up with no House members. I jest. But he's singing a very different tune.

Josh Marshall
@joshtpm.bsky.social

But yes, it is borderline absurd to be saying that the incumbent party has a 5 seat margin, a 7+ generic defict and a Prez with like -25 deficit and the out-party has maybe 55-45 odds.

Joe Ickowski
@joeick.bsky.social

It's honestly crazy because if you know literally nothing other than "it's a midterm" and the size of the Republican margin, postwar results say 18/20 times the out party gains enough seats to get to a majority