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This is a good thread. I would add that a similar dynamic unfolded with the Inflation Reduction Act — white papers with strong claims about expected outcomes, based on equally strong assumptions about technology costs and policy implementation.

To be clear, I'm not hating on the IRA or the people who supported it. But I am a former energy modeler and the primary reason I drifted away from that field is because the feedback loop between model-based claims and policy applications is more a political than scientific matter.

Well said, Danny.

I mean it should be “fewer” not “less” but this is a free website :)

Glad you caught so I didn't need to heave an exasperated and disappointed sigh