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Until January 2020, actual deaths were identical to what we expected But then the lines began to diverge The gap between the lines is "excess" death if the black line is above the white line It's NEGATIVE excess deaths if the black line is below the white line So simple even I understand it
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Excess mortality is underestimated bc mortality displacement. Excess mortality: people die before expected → lower expected mortality in later periods → compare new expected mortality with actual mortality. See example 👇+ NL 2021/22 www.hanslugtigheid.nl/excess-morta... (+ explanation estimates etc)