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It’s going to be option 4, I don’t see much in recent experience to suggest otherwise. Whether or not the gas tax is formally abolished we have in practice moved road funding over to the general fund.

Yonah Freemark@yonahfreemark.com

The federal Highway Trust Fund, which funds road & transit, faces a >$318 billion shortfall by 2036. How can Congress address this? —Cut spending by 40% —Increase the gas tax —Implement new taxes (VMT, registration) —Transfer from the general fund We lay it out: taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/congr...

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I used to think that but the budget picture has soured quickly. general fund revenues will be fought over more and more as time passes. I expect a 16-20 cent gas tax increase will pass. Its not fun but many states have done it. Cars are efficient and people are rich.

The median American was in kindergarten the last time the federal gas tax was raised. I think likely it just continues to lose value over time and we come up with a different system (hopefully a better one).

Strictly on highway funding, and ignoring other externalities the gas tax helps with, I'm not sure Congress will think the revenue juice is worth the political squeeze. Ignore EVs. Our conventional fleet gets more efficient each year, and AFDC believes 2025 saw a net fall in non-hybrid gas cars.

Many state highway systems have more diversified funding mechanisms and have had more frequent gas tax rate changes, meaning they had smaller CPI/MPG gaps to fill. Federal Highway Trust Fund has one dedicated revenue source, and it hasn't been adjusted for anything in over three decades.

i think they will adjust it because it will be too hard to cover the entirety of the shortfall with general fund revenue when yields are five percent and public debt is 100% of gdp