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The Social Security trust fund depletes in 2032. The Trustees Report moved it up a year. It models each risk separately. We identified seven policies — several from the same bill — all hitting the fund at once. No combined scenario has been published. helyn.com/r/reckoning #SocialSecurity #OBBBA

helyn.comThe Reckoning — The BriefingThe trust fund depletes in 2032. The bill he delivered 215 to 214.

Helyn Research

@helyn.com

The seven mechanisms: — Tax structure shifting wages to pass-through — 238,000 federal workers cut — Tariff-driven economic slowdown — $911B in Medicaid cuts — Fed pressure on $2.7T in reserves — Multiple inflation vectors, no offset — $25.7B/yr from workers deported before collecting #ScrapTheCap

18/6/26, 9:22 pm0 reposts1 like

Helyn Research

@helyn.com

18 June

The Majority Whip on Tax Day: "By the time of the midterms, people are not only going to be talking about it, they are going to feel it." The provisions made permanent — corporate rates, estate exemptions, pass-throughs — aren't subject to the pressure. Tips, overtime, auto loans expire by 2029.

Helyn Research

@helyn.com

18 June

Sourced to CBO, SSA actuaries, and primary documents throughout. This is from a 20-chapter investigative series on the legislator who delivered the bill 215-214. Full sourcing and analysis at helyn.com #EconSky

helyn.comHelyn ResearchIndependent research. Publications in congressional accountability and constitutional theory.