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TD Cowen’s Jerome Darling estimates that it costs $42m+ per megawatt to build a data center and Oracle wants to build 10GW of them. $50 billion on top of $56 billion already raised is not sufficient (needs $189bn+) to complete the 4.5GW to service OpenAI’s $300bn, 5-year-long deal.

No way I see how Oracle, a company that already is running low on cash, is going to afford $189bn, and then pay off those loans if OpenAI cannot pay them, I’m listening. To pay the loans, OpenAI needs to make enough to pay Oracle the entire annual revenue of Azure by 2028 ($75bn).

Even if OpenAI doesn’t die, it needs to be able to pay Oracle an astonishing amount - the contract is $300 billion over 5 years. AWS’ entire revenue is around $110bn a year. The OpenAI deal starts in 2027, and will likely be tens of billions at the least. Oracle needs the money to pay the loans.

absolute best case scenario, Cerner sells for $35bn and the rest of Oracle Health $35 billion, that would get Oracle $70 billion, which would mean it only needs another $63 billion or so just to finish the first 4.5GW. Neither are worth more than $20bn. bsky.app/profile/luke...

There’s nobody who would be happier than me to see Oracle go tits up. And remember that Ellison has some huge tits.

he is a singularly repellent individual though musk is trying