Post

I've had several conversations with people over the last few weeks that have highlighted how far apart my view of the near future is from many people I talk to. Here are some things I might tweet if that was the kind of thing I did: www.jefftk.com/p/ai-tweets

AI has a very real chance of getting us all killed. I think it probably won't because I expect a lot of people to work very hard to avoid that outcome.

AI is so quickly approaching (or exceeding) expert human abilities across so many areas that most people should be planning for 1-3 more years in which they can productively contribute. Use the time well!

But also don't live your life in a way where if it takes longer than that you're destitute; there's still a lot of uncertainty in how quickly this plays out.

We are already seeing AI speeding up the development of AI, as it substitutes for human expertise. As the remaining human contribution gets smaller I expect this to compound dramatically, and we'll see rapid improvement even compared to today.

I don't know if the metaphor is "goalpost moving" or "frog boiling" but if you dropped a top model into 2006 it would very clearly be "AGI".

If you think AI isn't improving rapidly you're doing some combination of not applying it to hard enough problems, not giving it enough context/tooling/tokens, or not using top models.

I'm worried about the environmental impacts of data centers, in that I see plausible near futures in which the world produces vastly more energy than it does today and almost all of it goes into powering computers.

Many paths to appropriately serious action run through warning shots, and we've been getting some. So far they look like hacks, and there will be more. Aside: information that should not become public is increasingly dangerous to keep.

Lots of people have plans to make the world better by improving X to improve Y to improve Z, where it's Z that matters. If Z is more than 3y out, consider finding a different plan.

Have you looked out the fucking window lately?! Absurdly rich people are stockpiling resources, and the structures we do have to redistribute resources are punitive and wildly insufficient. Are you imagining that CEOs of AI companies suddenly have a change of heart and make it a public good?