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2/ In Europe, a joke is making the rounds. Trump spent the year searching for a 51st state — Greenland said no, Canada said no, Panama said no. Meanwhile Europe, accused of civilizational decline, can't keep up with the membership applications.

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3/ Trump came to office with a theory. The US is the world's largest import market. Applied with enough force, this leverage would produce concessions on trade, investment, and the rules governing global competition.

4/ Turns out it hasn't worked. The goods trade deficit hit a record $1.24 trillion in 2025. Manufacturing shed tens of thousands of jobs. Trade with China fell — but was diverted to Vietnam, Taiwan, and Mexico. The overall imbalance barely moved.

5/ Canada — the US's largest trading partner — walked away from negotiations in August. Mark Carney said the US approach had "called into question the reliability of any deal." That used to be our closest ally.

6/ Regardless of who wins in 2028, formal trade agreements with the United States no longer offer any certainty the terms will hold. Governments and investors must now permanently price in that risk.