Post

I'll propose Higgs's Theory, so named for the premier who lost an election because he didn't believe it: trans issues are high-salience to a relatively small part of the voting public, but that small part skews heavily pro-trans. Trans people and their allies outnumber the out-and-out bigots

Focusing on trans issues in a just-asking-questions way doesn't appeal to the pro-trans voters because they see it for what it is: a slippery slope to full-on bigotry. It also doesn't appear to the large portion of the public who agrees with it, because the issue is low-salience for them.

The economy is high-salience to everyone which is why it wins elections. Trans rights are high-salience to a group of people who skew younger and will make for good campaign volunteers if you can motivate them