Post

Dani Ellis
@lapinesque.com

A 🧵 on current SDF/AANES situation in: 1. Northern Aleppo & Til Rifaat 2. Minbij region 3. Deir-ez-Zor, specifically Khasham pocket Based on conversations with people on the ground there. (As a caveat, I'm not a member of the SDF and don't speak for them)

Dani Ellis
@lapinesque.com

1. Northern Aleppo. SDF command were aware of the state of SAA and have been actively planning for a collapse for some time, but were unaware of the timing of HTS's operation. Once it started, they began operation to evacuate as many civilians as possible to the East.

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Dani Ellis
@lapinesque.com

The problem they had is that there are 250k+ refugees in this region, in addition to many families that have lived there for generations. At same time there has been a influx of other minorities into SDF areas. Moving this many people is a huge op regardless of how well planned.

Dani Ellis
@lapinesque.com

West of Minbij the SDF was spread over a large area with long supply lines (partially through SAA-held territory) and saliant at Tel Rifat stretching deep into areas under SNA. It was considered to costly to mount a defence and so a withdrawal was the most sensible option...

Dani Ellis
@lapinesque.com

...but at the same time they could not force residents there to leave their homes prior to outbreak of hostilities. Both politically and militarily they were in a difficult position.

Dani Ellis
@lapinesque.com

As a result there are now 200k+ refugees on their way to Minbij+Tabqa, under SDF control. HTS appears to have allowed this to take place, but the SNA have taken advantage of it and have been raiding convoys. They have posted videos of them torturing & beheading those captured.