The Map Center on Mythryl: “I would not trust a Polymarket prediction for much, let alone a bet…”

"The Wisdom of the Crowd" relies on the principle that people who are wrong are equally likely to guess over as under. Wrong answers cancel out and leave a weak signal of rightness behind. This works for stuff like "how many jellybeans in the jar" but not for emotionally charged outcomes.

More Perfect Union@moreperfectunion.bsky.social

Polymarket got the Brazilian election completely wrong. The glorified gambling platform had Flavio Bolsonaro's odds at over 80% all the way up to the day voting took place. Lula ended up with 51.8% of the vote. futurism.com/future-socie...

futurism.com"Prediction" Markets Were Comically Wrong About the Brazilian ElectionThe prediction market Polymarket had Flávio Bolsonaro as an overwhelming favorite to win over Lula in the Brazil presidential election.

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