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The Fed meets this week, and while it will be the first with Kevin Warsh as chair, it is tough to see any significant changes to monetary policy. The Fed is stuck between surging inflation, which argues for rate hikes, and a soft job market, which argues for cuts, thus no change.

Mark Zandi

@markzandi.bsky.social

One likely tweak will be to remove the easing bias in the last meeting’s statement. This, despite the new Fed chair’s own seeming bias to ease rates. He has called out trimmed mean inflation, which is rising more slowly than the Fed’s current preferred measure, the PCE deflator.

15/6/26, 12:22 pm0 reposts8 likes

Mark Zandi

@markzandi.bsky.social

15 June

He has also argued that AI will lower inflation. Neither argument is convincing, as trimmed mean is also above target, and, at least so far, AI is juicing inflation.

Mark Zandi

@markzandi.bsky.social

15 June

If Warsh doesn’t buck his colleagues on holding rate unchanged and eliminating the easing bias, it would help assuage fears over Fed independence. Those worries have already receded with former chair Jay Powell’s decision to stay on.

Mark Zandi

@markzandi.bsky.social

15 June

And if the Supreme Court rules that the President can’t fire Fed officials at will, as expected, it’s (mostly) a reason to exhale.