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It seems unlikely the balloon in the photo was carrying 1600 packs of cigarettes (18000 packs, 11 balloons)

It's hard to tell exactly how big that balloon is, but I'll do some back of the napkin math. Pack of cigarettes ~= 25g. 1600 packs x 25g = 40 Kg. Helium lift at STP ~1 Kg/m^3. So, you would roughly need 40 m^3 of helium to lift those 1600 packs. I don't think that balloon is quite that big.

I guarantee you this had nothing to do with tobacco smuggling, and all about Belarus being able to cause trouble with semi-plausible deniability.

Completely lacks context. Why exactly would they attach cigarettes to balloons and send them over the border? Nothing springs to mind. It's not something I would have predicted or understand what the goal of is. So why?

To avoid higher EU taxes if Belarus has lower cost tobacco the way people buy from reservations to avoid taxes?

LMAO, that's kinda amazing. Maybe someone could float some American Spirits over to Brooklyn for me? 🤣🤣🤣

$14.00 a pack here in WA state. Crazy!

$50(NZ) for a pack of 20 here in New Zealand.