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Easiest way to see this is US commercial inventories. Low, especially compared to the last 10y, but very much not apocalyptic.

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...no? You're talking about the strategic reserve. This, as explicitly noted in the post, is COMMERCIAL inventories.

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So a few months ago the US had about 800 million barrels of reserves about evenly split between commercial and spr. And now we're at 700 million with commercial reserves about unchanged and the spr down 100 million.

Is there a reason why commercial inventories haven't changed yet other than the Feds are willing to sell from the strategic reserve so there's no incentive for businesses to change their strategy around inventory?