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I compared similarweb, ahrefs and semrushs traffic predictions against 8 websites I have traffic data from Turns out that semrushs' prediction is the best Only looked at SEO traffic Green means it's less than 50% off the reality

Thanks for sharing! My guess would be that it isn't so much about the size of the site but the branded searches. Brand-searches probably have better data in Google Ads which usually is an important data source of those tools. Of course: Usually bigger sites have more brand searches.