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"[...] the average [ChatGPT] query uses about 0.34 watt-hours, about what an oven would use in a little over one second, or a high-efficiency lightbulb would use in a couple of minutes. It also uses about 0.000085 gallons of water" - Sam Altman in blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-s...

blog.samaltman.comThe Gentle SingularityWe are past the event horizon; the takeoff has started. Humanity is close to building digital superintelligence, and at least so far it’s much less weird than it seems like it should be. Robots...

But given the median chatgpt user is asking a fairly basic question, it’s reasonable to assume a typical prompt is under 25 words. This doesn’t factor in multimodal inputs, but anecdotally, those are in the minority

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Again, the system prompt is cached and that cost has already been paid for once, with any minor updates amortizing away with time. Kid aren't primarily generating essays. That's a minority use case that doesn't make up the bulk of median user usage, which is what Altman's statement was about.

Also, if you don't think prompt size is a factor: Long context windows are about large payload input. Agentic and reasoning use cases are about extensive generation. If the dominant use case is just generating binary or multiclass answers to questions, then there are better for ways than generative

I disagree. Prompt caching does save the forward pass on the system prompt, but it doesn't eliminate the computational load for that giant model state on each token generation. The size of the prompt post caching sets the comp/power cost of each token generation.