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Rob Fahey
@robfahey.net

Polling for LDP elections can help to show how the wind is blowing, but as Jeff points out, only members get to vote (and are actually very hard to pin-point in polling data so these estimates are always very rough). Plus, the decisive second round is very heavily weighted towards lawmakers’ votes.

Jeffrey J. Hall@mrjeffu.bsky.social

A new poll asked Japanese their preference for the next leader of the LDP. Takaichi Sanae came in first with 29%. However, it should be noted that when you isolate for LDP supporters, Koizumi Shinjiro beats her 33% to 28%. Non-party members do not vote in the election. news.line.me/detail/oa-yo...

news.line.me次の自民党総裁、トップは高市早苗氏２９％・小泉進次郎氏が続く…読売世論調査（読売新聞オンライン）読売新聞社は１３～１４日、全国世論調査を実施した。自民党総裁選（２２日告示、１０月４日投開票）を巡り、次の自民党総裁に誰がふさわしいと思うかを尋ねたところ、高市早苗・前経済安全保
Rob Fahey
@robfahey.net

In this instance, there’s also a problem with just doing a popularity contest style poll like this. Candidates like Takaichi are very polarising; arguably the really important indicator of public opinion would be to ask “which of these candidates do you absolutely NOT want as LDP leader?”

Rob Fahey
@robfahey.net

(That data would be important for two reasons IMO; firstly, lawmakers will take on board strong negative reactions from constituents; secondly, those negative reactions will also inform the choices of opposition parties choosing whether, and how much, to cooperate with the new minority leader.)

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OneHunchMan
@tokyofrenchie.bsky.social

Specifically, Komeito has said fairly clearly (by Japanese politician standards) they won't want a coalition with Takaichi at the helm. Even with Komeito's relevance fading, LDP cannot afford to lose its coalition partner right now, even if they get Ishin instead. They arguably need both.