Post

"mad at prediction markets for giving 40% chance to something that actually happened" is such a revealing genre of post. 40% things happen all the time!

25/10/26, 10:49 pm1 repost17 likes

Dan

@handackett.bsky.social

Almost half!

Depravity Pike

@gravity-pike.bsky.social

I think a more fundamental problem is treating a prediction market as if it had special insight into the nature of reality, rather than just reflecting the preferences of a pool of (primarily) young men who share a gambling addiction.

mimir

@mimirwolv.bsky.social

do you think you could do better?

Depravity Pike

@gravity-pike.bsky.social

not particularly? I think that both myself and prediction markets are poor oracles, and that it is unsurprising when we are wrong — both because we lack vital information, and have a particular set of biases that is reflected in our predictions.