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Today’s GFS 18Z for 11 July showing max temperatures in England reaching 41°C Not to be taken as a deterministic forecast. However, this suggests that yet more extreme heat is possible in the next few weeks, which is made more likely and intense by climate change driven by burning fossil fuels.

27/6/26, 9:14 pm40 reposts90 likes

Simon Lee

@simonleewx.com

28 June

Should say 12Z, not 18Z

Eddy Canfor-Dumas

@ec-d.bsky.social

28 June

What do these letters and numbers mean?

Simon Lee

@simonleewx.com

28 June

The time in Zulu (UTC) that the model was run

Thanks. And GFS?

If 2026 can obliterate the May record, then obliterate the June record… then why not obliterate the July and all time record too?

Sarah H

@sarahhants.bsky.social

29 June

I genuinely want to cry at this point. Still not fully recovered from last week.

Jamie Hannaford

@jamiehannahydro.bsky.social

28 June

Hi Simon. Interesting/highly unnerving. Parking the uncertainty as to whether this becomes manifest…What’s behind these recurrent heat domes this year? I’m sure it’s a long and maybe not straightforward answer, just interested in global scale setting.

Jamie Hannaford

@jamiehannahydro.bsky.social

28 June

(As in not the obvious climate change factor, rather the global patterns leading to these repeated events right now)

Simon Lee

@simonleewx.com

29 June

Great question. It's not clear to me whether the synoptic situation is particularly remarkable, e.g., running through the latest GFS (which also goes for 41°C) it's just the case that an eastward moving high is able to quickly advect exceptionally hot air on its W flank.

Simon Lee

@simonleewx.com

29 June

...which perhaps remains much hotter due to high SSTs. We have >15°C T850 approaching from the SW! To me this just looks like a fairly common setup for hot days in the UK, which is maybe even more concerning if it's so easily able to give extremes.