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It feels to me like the single biggest difference between Bluesky and Mastodon is that Bluesky wants to be a viable Twitter replacement and Mastodon doesn't

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Bluesky is supposed to support that eventually - that's what they mean by "federation" - but the fact that they haven't shipped that yet accidentally addresses a ton of the onboarding learning curve issues that Mastodon has

I’d argue that many of the people that made it here early were also capable of onboarding to Mastodon. Making the federation work for users when it is shipped will be a big challenge.

Agreed. Decentralization also the central differentiator promoted by Bluesky. If it offers the ideal server framework, and prevents tyrannical takeovers while driving content creation for the next two decades, it could become the YouTube of micro-blogging. Huge challenge with high risk.

Absolutely key. Onboarding new users by force-feeding them federative philosophy is catastrophic for retention. Bluesky solves that with super-simplicity and defaults. Verification through DNS is also so simple. Now, scale will be tested. Can they drive growth? This is where fails may happen.

Mastodon’s anti-algorithm stance made it hostile to casual users who wanted to test the waters. Ye olde reverse-chronological timeline is a formula for high churn in 2023.

And honestly most of that comes down to timing: when Mastodon was created 7 years ago the world didn't NEED a Twitter replacement - Twitter was doing just fine! Bluesky is being born into a world where a replacement is very firmly needed

mastodon was also originally populated by people who were driven off of Twitter before it was almost Twitter. The cultural norms that grew up there are decidedly more proscriptive, for better or for worse.