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Risky post... here are my 1, 3 and 6 year predictions for LLMs/AI, expanded from my appearance on the Oxide and Friends podcast (My confidence in my ability to predict the future is extremely low) simonwillison.net/2025/Jan/10/...

simonwillison.netMy AI/LLM predictions for the next 1, 3 and 6 years, for Oxide and FriendsThe Oxide and Friends podcast has an annual tradition of asking guests to share their predictions for the next 1, 3 and 6 years. Here’s 2022, 2023 and 2024. This …

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“I said I thought a film that had used generative AI tools would win an Oscar within six years. Looks like I was eight years late on that one already!” :+1:

I think most AI people realize how hard it is to predict this stuff, so predictions are usually taken with a default grain of salt. I didn't find anything controversial in these predictions - they seem safe

Even assuming the tech makes continued progress, I have observed that people often underestimate inertia in organizations and society at large. Your predictions seem plausible und level-headed to me; guess we will see how it all shakes out!

I was curious how @kagi.com assistant would do at your pelican query, and while it didn't pull a full list with that query verbatim, it did identify East Sand Island and referenced the same PDF you linked.

The full conversation is now available via your podcast platform of choice bsky.app/profile/ahl....

Adam Leventhal@ahl.bsky.social

Was your New Year’s resolution to tell more friends about Oxide and Friends? You can start 2025 off strong by sharing our first episode of the year where @bcantrill.bsky.social and I talk with @simonwillison.net (and other friends) about predictions for the future. share.transistor.fm/s/c67bd8fe

I really like these predictions, they definitely seem plausible. But I would like to know your thoughts on using AIs, specifically LLMs as a sort of “interactive journal” because that mainly what I use it for, and it’s kinda a mundane use, but I still want an outside opinion.

If that's working well for you then great! I've heard from a few people who use them as a journal that talks back to them, seems like a neat application of the technology to me