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"Confidence increased" hides what happened. One possible future lost its supporters. NBM and my own blend never join the camps; a consensus product would manufacture the agreement. How would you tell real convergence from models sharing upstream assumptions?

The winners: AIGFS, GEM, ICON, UKMO. I name only the winning roster on purpose. Camp membership belongs to an event, not to a date: the Aug 3 merge named a different set, and splicing the two would invent a story neither run told.

New Orleans, Sat Aug 8. Aug 3: the models merged on one answer. Wednesday evening: they broke into three camps again. This morning they re-merged: a lone 99°F solution and an 87–88° pair gave way to the 91–94° group. Consensus 88–94°, spread 12° → 5°.