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The final consensus called 82°. ERA5 says the day came in at 86° — inside the range the models still spanned, above the middle of it. ECMWF landed closest, off 0.6°. AIFS ran 6° cold.
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One date is not a league table — a model can win a day it deserved to lose. Every lead, every model, and what verified: spreadwx.com/model-accuracy/seattle-washington/2026-08-07
spreadwx.comWas the forecast right for Seattle on Fri Aug 7?14 days out the models said 71–96; it hit 86. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); AIFS ran 6°F cold.