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After seeing the headline "SpaceX IPO: How to Buy and Why You Shouldn't" on @barrons.com, I decided it was time to read the prospectus. I'm only a few pages in and folks... the implications of this document ... Do you want to go on a journey with me? Because I'm about to enter the rabbit hole.

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Thanks for the deep dive. The only unique core competency seems to be launch capability, and as you point out, it's costly for the revenue it brings. The rest is worse than existing alternatives. There is still a cult of Elon Musk and that's all that's driving this. That and greater fool theory.

NB 1: I should be writing an obituary. One of my friends & an occasional personal assistant, @nikkiwalker.bsky.social, passed away Friday night. I am shredding this document because, honestly, I'm better able to handle that at this moment. NB 2: At some point, I'm pausing to get dinner. Let's go.

Reminder: SpaceX consists of - The Rocket Launch (SpaceX) division - Starlink, the internet service provider - xAI, (source of Grok), the AI company - X, (aka Twitter), the social media company This is all one company.

xAI/Grok bleeds money at aortic levels and is very unlikely to ever become profitable X is dying on the vine The rocket company will become profitable, but it's not a very big market Starlink is a real and successful business. That's it

As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX had ~650 launches with 85% using one or more previously flown boosters. I always forget how long ISS astronauts stay in space, so I was surprised to see that there have only been 78 crew flown. SpaceX is responsible for 80% of Mass to Orbit.

Shouldn't these question be asked? Shouldn't they answer these type of questions before being approved for IPO? Such vagueness reeks of fraud.

The point of the prospectus is to give investors the hard information about plans they need to do their own risk calculations. Any assessment of profitability requires assumptions about resolution of uncertainty, which you should not delegate to the proponent for obvious reasons. 1/