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Just published in the @jpube.bsky.social “The Impact of International Conflict on Cross-Border Commercial Dispute Resolution” with Dmitrii Shchetinin Do judges apply legal rules in the same way when relations between their countries break down? 1/12

We study this question in Russia and Ukraine following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. We use a difference-in-differences design comparing the enforcement of Russian and Ukrainian decisions before and after the conflict with that of decisions from other countries. 2/12

Put simply, enforcement means that if a court in one country says someone must pay, a court in another country helps make that happen. 3/12

2️⃣ Courts made exceptional legal safeguards routine Courts increasingly relied on discretionary legal grounds, including public policy exceptions, to refuse enforcement. 5/12

3️⃣ Appeal courts did not solve the problem Even after appeal, the enforcement of Ukrainian decisions in Russia and Russian decisions in Ukraine remained significantly lower than before the conflict. 6/12

4️⃣ The financial stakes were substantial Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that, over 2014–2019, the decline in enforcement left approximately $100 million in Ukrainian claims and $180 million in Russian claims uncollected. 7/12