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❓When will Russia finally start falling apart? And will it happen at all? If only we knew. To explore the question, we brought together a wide range of indicators in a single graph called "Russia’s Curve" 🧵👇

2/5 From the state of Russia’s economy and battlefield losses to public sentiment and complaints from Russian war correspondents — we set these indicators up to update automatically. Each one pulls the curve up or down, with varying degrees of influence.

3/5 !A disclaimer upfront!: our model is ENTIRELY SUBJECTIVE — from the indicators we chose to how much weight we assigned each one in shaping the overall curve, which shows where Russia is heading.

4/5 The curve cannot predict when Russia will collapse. It only shows the general direction of travel. Of course, Russia conceals a great deal of data, so we included only publicly available indicators that can be updated automatically.