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here's a fun stat for the orbital data center curious: Google's latest analysis of launch prices for space data centers suggests Starship will have to fly 1,800 times to drive the learning curve for cost reductions down to $200 per kg. techcrunch.com/2026/10/01/g...

techcrunch.comGoogle thinks SpaceX's Starship has to launch 1,800 times before space data centers get off the ground | TechCrunchGoogle launched its first advanced chip into orbit to pave the way for space data centers.

Tim Fernholz

@timfernholz.com

I don't have a link I can share to the final paper yet but here's the relevant text

1/10/26, 8:41 pm1 repost14 likes

Barry Jenakuns

@jenakuns.bsky.social

1800$/kg for Falcon Heavy is a new one; but still a terrible analysis to get there. FH has not decreased prices relative to F9 due to "heavier launch", which is blindingly obvious because F9 regularly launches heavier payloads than Falcon's Heavy current record mass to orbit launch.

Barry Jenakuns

@jenakuns.bsky.social

The $/kg that matters is F9 internal rate because that's what enables Starlink and that sits at around 1,300$/kg (and is cheaper than FH). In regards to the required N. of Starship launches; SpaceX has been saying this for about 2 decades; so glad everyone could catch up I guess.

Tim Fernholz

@timfernholz.com

Do you have a cite for SpaceX's prediction that 1,800 flights would be required to drive down costs to $200/kg? Would be useful in my reporting

Barry Jenakuns

@jenakuns.bsky.social

Not those specifics numbers; but the whole point of a fully and rapidly reusable LV is to launch loads and that's been the vision since like 2005. You will have a burn rate in the billions, so to have a launch cost <$7M (cost of a Falcon 1) requires an annual cadence in the hundreds.