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Will Oremus
@willoremus.com

If Reuters can tell when insiders are making bets on Polymarket that telegraph US military actions, it seems fair to assume that America's foreign adversaries can too www.reuters.com/business/fin...

reuters.comEXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research findsMore than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on inside U.S. military information, attracting copycat ​bets and raising concerns that the market could broadcast signals exploitable...
Will Oremus
@willoremus.com

Also this isn’t the main point but I’ve racked my brain to imagine what kind of sucker without inside info is taking the losing side of these bets and the only thing I have come up with so far is “gambling addicts”

Will Oremus
@willoremus.com

OK wait I just thought of something. If you were an intelligence agent for China or Iran and you wanted to bait some U.S. officials into coughing up military secrets, you could maybe do worse than creating a prediction market around the specific question you want the answer to…. ?

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Will Oremus
@willoremus.com

We’ll just have to hope and trust that no country yet has managed to developed an intelligence apparatus on par with Random Bluesky Poster Idly Pondering Something He Just Read for 47 Seconds