Amanda Michaud

Hot off the #QLmonthly presses: the odds a laid off worker exits the labor force altogether is reaching an all time high! Could unemployment rates be artificially low? Check out March's data and our monthly briefing sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

Counterpoint to doom and gloom: While most of this data suggests the labor market is turning softer, the starting position is, historically, a pretty strong one. 4/n

Hot off the #QLmonthly presses: the odds a laid off worker exits the labor force altogether is reaching an all time high! Could unemployment rates be artificially low? Check out March's data and our monthly briefing sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

Optimistic view: labor market is strong, jobs are easy to find, so workers are not worried. BUT we see job finding rates and quits are down so maybe recently laid-off workers are those with the poor job prospects and are too discouraged to search? 3/n

Hot off the #QLmonthly presses: the odds a laid off worker exits the labor force altogether is reaching an all time high! Could unemployment rates be artificially low? Check out March's data and our monthly briefing sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

Ahem: I mean papers **in progress** not (necessarily) papers on Economic development (although those are welcomed too) 🤦

📣 #econsky Each fall, Mpls Fed hosts scholars within 8 years of their PhD for an Early Career Workshop focused on papers **in development** This year's deadline is April 11. Share & help us find the best new 💡 from PhD's 2017-2024! www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co...

#QLmonthly updated with February data. No material weakness in the labor market but quits are flashing a contradictory signal. This month we explore how quits relate to worker expectations and to forecasting. sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

2) Quits normally strongly co-move with job finding expectations but have diverged over the last year, falling much more than job finding expectations have fallen. 6/n

#QLmonthly updated with February data. No material weakness in the labor market but quits are flashing a contradictory signal. This month we explore how quits relate to worker expectations and to forecasting. sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

Not much month over month movement in job finding rates for the prime age which are at a fairly neutral level. 4/n

#QLmonthly updated with February data. No material weakness in the labor market but quits are flashing a contradictory signal. This month we explore how quits relate to worker expectations and to forecasting. sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co... 1/n

Layoffs to non-employment still moving a bit opposite of movements from employment to unemployment (EU) as a greater share of prime age workers who are laid off exit the labor force. 2/n

#QLmonthly update: updated with January data. Data support our view we've expressed over the past few months that the labor market has settled at a normal position after some noted cooling in early-mid 2024. The rise in prime EU and layoffs were not sustained. sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co...

tldr; nothing notable in January means we're MORE confident that the labor market is settled in, but also no strong signal from flows about where we'll be tomorrow. Welcome to the random-walk! Of course there is a lot going on, we just report inference from flows.

#QLmonthly update: updated with January data. Data support our view we've expressed over the past few months that the labor market has settled at a normal position after some noted cooling in early-mid 2024. The rise in prime EU and layoffs were not sustained. sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co...

Quits continue steady decline after brief pause last year. Nothing abnormal yet.

#QLmonthly update: updated with January data. Data support our view we've expressed over the past few months that the labor market has settled at a normal position after some noted cooling in early-mid 2024. The rise in prime EU and layoffs were not sustained. sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co...

#QLmonthly has been updated with December's data. (sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co...). Updated charts for prime-age in this thread. First, layoffs to non-employment rose in December but the rolling average remains below the summer 24' spike. 1/3

Second, EU rates (employed workers who become unemployed) remain stable although layoffs to non-employment rose in December. This is because the share of laid off workers exiting the labor force also increased in December (fyi: labor force exit data are too on our website). 2/3

#QLmonthly data updated with November's release (sites.google.com/qlmonthly.co...). We are in blackout so here are the updated charts, without commentary. I will be back with analysis after Friday. First chart: prime age quits and layoffs to nonemployment (1/3)

Percent of prime age employed laid-off versus percent of prime age employed moving to unemployment (EU). (2/3)