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Is it actually the case that Hormuz was open until Trump attacked Iran? If every calculation re Iran included the potential closure of the straight then it has been an effective threat of force. A threat of force that achieved some of the same outcomes as actual control of the straight but..

AA Bastian 卞曉菁 | باستيان

@aabastian.com

for less money, manpower, and machines. So it seems economic interests have long outweighed social interests in the Hormuz calculation. Or Iran's social interests were seen as less of a cost than the economic pain that would potentially cause more social problems.

17/4/26, 10:09 pm0 reposts0 likes

AA Bastian 卞曉菁 | باستيان

@aabastian.com

17 Apr

It's the bluff that China plays with Taiwan. The threat of force versus actual control.