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Adrien Corenflos
@adriencorenflos.bsky.social

I think this didn't get nearly enough traction. Sam did some fantastic work here leveraging the library we've been developing to make predictions for football. This was ported to a UI by Ryan Chan (Warwick MSc student) who's doing his thesis with me (on the methods behind the prediction).

Sam Duffield@samduffield.com

The World Cup is about to start, I wrote a model using cuthbert to predict the games, check out cuthberto-carlos 🐛⚽ ryantjx.github.io/cuthberto-ca...

2 reposts4 likes

Adrien Corenflos
@adriencorenflos.bsky.social

I think for specialists it's also a very good chance to compare the state-space model approach with the modelling of bsky.app/profile/pymc... I also encourage people to read the paper that makes the inference possible on our side: arxiv.org/abs/2308.02414

arxiv.orgA State-Space Perspective on Modelling and Inference for Online Skill RatingWe summarise popular methods used for skill rating in competitive sports, along with their inferential paradigms and introduce new approaches based on sequential Monte Carlo and discrete hidden Markov...
PyMC Labs@pymc-labs.bsky.social

New PyMC model forecasts the entire 2026 World Cup group stage: scorelines and advancement odds for all 48 teams. Opening day it nailed Mexico 2-0 and Korea 2-1. England, Spain, and Brazil lead; Group D is chaos. Read the full blog here: dub.sh/hBW61BZ #PyMC #WorldCup2026