Adrien Corenflos

New preprint with V. Karagulyan & M. Kasprzak: arxiv.org/pdf/2610.20007 We estimate the pseudo-spectral gap of (continuous state-space) Markov chains from a single trajectory. Plugging the estimate into Paulin's version of Bernstein inequality leads to empirical deviation bounds for Markov chains!

Very sad to hear that Margaret Hamilton has passed away. Here's a short thread about her role in the Apollo mission, and her lesser-known work on the simulations that led to the discovery of Chaos Theory. 🧪 👩‍🔬 ⚛️

Upgrading my "hedghog-cake as an estimand" slide with some more hedgehog cakes from hell. #statsmeme

A group of 25 Fields Medalists, including myself, have made a joint declaration on Math and AI: mathandai.org . We welcome additional signatories. See also this article in the Economist announcing the declaration: www.economist.com/science-and-...

Just realised I feel about cars like half of you feel about LLMs. “Oh but you can’t deny it’s convenient” I don’t deny it’s convenient, I attest that it sucks to live in the world it created

I was reading today about the Borell-TIS inequality, which is named after Christer Borell, and then three people who had the bad idea of not writing a single author paper. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borell%...

Wow, I love this short piece about writing and revision, comparing students to experts: psychology.yale.edu/sites/defaul... Good writing is good thinking. AI might assist but can't do that for me. I'm writing for a deadline tonight, and it's wonderful I get to write, and think, for work.

A good summary of the holiday!

Claude and I just broke up: "it's not you, it's me".

Anyone know of any papers that directly critique Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for being unreliable (and not just slow/slower than a competing method)? Papers in stats or applied fields welcome, and the critiques don't have to be well-formed or even correct.

Unfortunately these characters are extremely messed up in this one. They were birthed in a nightmare I had. I don't know if I'm the one playing God with my characters, or if they're the ones playing God with me.

New version available at the same address! We bit the bullet and extended the work to consider arbitrary numbers of blocks, discrete spaces, parallel/systematic/random scan CAVI within a unified framework. Applications now include statistical physics models and others! arxiv.org/abs/2605.30253

Particle filters go brrrrr

Our paper (with Alain Durmus, Samuel Gruffaz, Miika Kailas and Eero Saksman) on the ergodicity of dynamic path length HMC algorithms appeared in the AAP: doi.org/10.1214/25-A.... The results accommodate the 'biased progressive sampling' path selection used in @mc-stan.org.

Now on the state-space-models repo state-space-models.github.io/cuthberto-ca...

Often maths is more about finding the right definition than actually proving the theorem.

A British friend texted me that PinkPantheress’ dad is a statistician. Stephen G. Walker is a Bayesian. This is our chance to make Bayesian nonparametrics mainstream. Looking at you @isba-bayesian.bsky.social.

👏 Folks! If you are curious about the Generative Modeling via Drifting paper, but you find it difficult to understand → I wrote a different interpretation of it. It's called: "An Expectation-Maximization interpretation of Generative Modeling via Drifting" davidpicard.github.io/pdf/An_Expec...

My name is Bon. Jam Bon.

How dare you exploit academic labor; that’s our job!

martynplummer.wordpress.com/2026/05/04/j...

In London today and tomorrow for this very exciting workshop! fsml-ucl.github.io/CSMLworkshop...

arXiv📈🤖 From Physics to Statistics: A Simple Route to Exponential Families via Maximum Entropy By Strimmer

Given popular demands, we have resumed the registration for a short period of time until *30 Apr*! Those already on the waiting list are guaranteed a slot so long as you register by 30 Apr. Other additional slots are available on a first-come-first basis :)

To be precise, Happy World Quantum Day to all the weirdos who observe!

Happy World Quantum Day to all the weirdos out there who celebrate!

arXiv📈🤖 E-values as statistical evidence: A comparison to Bayes factors, likelihoods, and p-values By Chugg, Ramdas, Gr\"unwald

The registration closes on 31 March and there are only a number of slots left --- register before they run out :)

My finalist medal from the Ignyte Awards arrived today for my scifi novella "Fractal Karma" which was a finalist in 2025 Made me tear up, it's beautiful If you want to read my story, it's available here. 2050's Boston and a hivemind based on Brunnian links: clarkesworldmagazine.com/ratnakar_10_...

Clearly a must read for anyone even remotely interested in numerical integration (be it stochastic and deterministic). Toni has been (hyper)active in studying these methods both theoretically and practically. arxiv.org/abs/2602.16218

Max Hird, Florian Maire, Jeffrey Negrea: A Non-asymptotic Analysis for Learning and Applying a Preconditioner in MCMC https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.10714 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.10714 https://arxiv.org/html/2602.10714

Repo: github.com/state-space-...

Another exciting workshop to be held at Warwick Statistics this coming June: The ProbAI Theory of Scaling Laws Workshop from 22-24 June! Website of the workshop: warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc... Registration open until 31 March on a first-come-first-serve basis: warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc....

According to AI, the exam I've written for my students "does not spark any joy".

Morning

i am not trying to be a part of my LLM's emotional growth arc. i do not want to know what my LLM works on with their therapist

ELLIS Institute Finland @ellisinstitute.fi has open call for postdocs (DL Feb 9) www.ellisinstitute.fi/postdoc-recr... There are 45 PIs to choose from, and you can apply to work also with me on computational Bayesian modeling and Bayesian workflow!

Shreya Sinha Roy's first paper (joint with me, Christian Robert and Rito Dutta) is on "Generalized Bayesian deep reinforcement learning". We use a neural network as a model in Bayesian reinforcement learning, trained using a generalized prequential scoring rule with SMC arxiv.org/abs/2412.1...

Do time travellers bring supermutant bugs from the future? Surely time travel should be banned from health and safety principles only.

There's free coffee.

Random thought: imagine there's a parallel universe exactly identical to ours. You are a genius scientist and invent a machine that lets you cross. As you press the button, your doppelganger does too, and so, for all intents and purposes, nothing changes and the machine simply doesn't work.

Cool place for foraging, if you too have the virus. #mushroom

We @uniofjyvaskyla.bsky.social are looking for an Assistant/Associate Professor (tenure track) in Mathematics (Probability/Mathematical Foundations of Data Science): www.ellisinstitute.fi/pi-positions.... Application instructions & form: www.ellisinstitute.fi/PI-recruit-2..., DL Jan 12!

🔥 WANTED: Student Researcher to join me, @vdebortoli.bsky.social, Jiaxin Shi, Kevin Li and @arthurgretton.bsky.social in DeepMind London. You'll be working on Multimodal Diffusions for science. Apply here google.com/about/career...

So MANY layers!

"The Principles of Diffusion Models" by Chieh-Hsin Lai, Yang Song, Dongjun Kim, Yuki Mitsufuji, Stefano Ermon. arxiv.org/abs/2510.21890 It might not be the easiest intro to diffusion models, but this monograph is an amazing deep dive into the math behind them and all the nuances